The Eastern Mediterranean Regional Office (EMRO) of WHO is actively monitoring the progress of the pandemic through frequent consultations with the Member States. This update has been produced based on the data reported from some Member States.

Geographical Distribution

Pandemic Influenza transmission remains geographically widespread in some countries the Region, except in Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Libya and Sudan, where the transmission of the pandemic influenza is regional.  

Trend

The overall activity of the pandemic during this week is declining in most of the reporting countries as compared to the previous weeks, except in Afghanistan and Oman. The activity of the pandemic is increasing in Afghanistan for the second week in a row and for the first week in Oman after the decline in Influenza activities that has been detected during the previous weeks.  A number of countries have already experienced a peak in activity during December 2009 and the first two weeks of January 2010 (Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Morocco, Palestine, Jordan, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya and Sudan).  

Available data on the rates of Influenza Like Illness (ILI)/ Acute Respiratory Infection (ARI) indicate a declining trend in Iraq and Sudan but increasing trend in Afghanistan and Oman. Data on Severe Acute Respiratory Infection (SARI) suggest a declining trend in Jordan and an increasing trend in Afghanistan and Oman.  

Intensity

Reports available from these countries suggest a low to moderate proportion of population have been affected by the pandemic.  

Impact on the health system

The demand on health care services in the reporting countries ranges between low to moderate but still below the maximum capacity of those services.  

Deaths

20 out of 22 Member States in the Region reported 61 laboratory-confirmed Pandemic H1N1 2009 deaths this week, which brings the total to 1,002 deaths.